TI6 featured the tournament’s third Chinese TI winner, Wings Gaming, who emerged victorious over Digital Chaos 3-1 in the grand final. Bans have historically been just a slight less bit behind (fewer teams playing in TI than in a normal sample of ~160 games), so this seems like a 91-100 / 101+ split. This was also the year where the Dota 2 game developers decided to switch out the Compendium for the Battle Pass, which contributed 25 of its total proceeds to the event’s prize pool. For 101+ not to be correct it would mean that the set of heroes including Clinkz, Slardar, Riki, Tinker, Viper, Drow would not have any element getting picked even once - something I think unlikely.
Ti6 compendium predictions Patch#
The patch is a sample of 662 drafts however, but even reducing to just Premium matches the story is similar. So far in 7.22 we’ve seen every hero picked, and every hero except Vengeful Spirit receive a ban. Among simple predictions such as the tournament winner or the final prizepool, you can also predict more intricate topics such as the amount of total games played, heroes picked or which player will highest GPM average. This also means a total of ~ 160 games in the entire event. The Manila Major is just around the corner and as with every Major, you can enter predictions into your Battle Pass on the outcome of the tournament. I feel that this season has seen some clear stratification in skills of teams, and thus there’ll be slightly fewer matches than average - so I’m going with 45-49 for the main event. Epicenter averaged 2.35 per bo3 and MDL averaged 2.53, so assuming ~2.41 is a reasonable average this puts it at 48-50 games depending on the finals - an annoying number given the prediction categories. There are 3 categories of matches: group stage (fixed at 112 games), tiebreakers (could be a large number, but is likely 0-6 with the most likely being 0-1), and playoffs (4 bo1 + 17 bo3 + 1 bo5). These are actually the only predictions which are very reliable, the rest become crapshoots simply because the number of possible answers increases so rapidly (and all can be offset by just a single game), so the analysis will be shorter for them. Many of the predictions rely on a significant tournament-wide number: how many games will be played at TI9, so we’ll start with the Tournament Predictions. I wanted to delay this a bit so I could see the 7.22f Immortal pub meta in case there was some interesting trends (since Alliance is the only team to play at The Summit who is also scheduled to play at TI). With The Summit 10 (and Bot TI 2 obviously) ending so recently, it seems like an appropriate time to do predictions for The International. Looking for what to predict for your TI9 Compendiums? Noxville is here with the stats to help you out!
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